Resources
A curated list of the books, frameworks, and writing that have shaped how I think.
Free
The Decision Audit
A five-question framework for leaders who want to make sharper judgment calls. Block thirty minutes, pick one significant recent decision, walk the worksheet. Enter your email and I’ll send it over.
Free
The Values Audit
A thirty-minute exercise to name the five values that actually drive you, rank them when they collide, and check whether your last ninety days reflected them. Enter your email and I’ll send it over.
Stay in touch
Get the notes.
Occasional writing on leadership, judgment, and the work of operating under uncertainty. Usually once or twice a month. No spam, no funnels.
The evidence
What the research actually shows
Two one-page, plainly-cited briefs — honest about where the evidence is strong and where the familiar claims don’t hold up. No email required.
The business case for executive coaching
What controlled research shows about coaching, workshops, and leadership development — and why the “5x ROI” figures don’t survive scrutiny.
Read the brief (PDF)The evidence for team development
What 51 controlled studies say about teamwork interventions and structured debriefs — why most “people problems” are structure problems, and where results lag process.
Read the brief (PDF)Publications
Selected writing on leadership, decision-making, and operating under uncertainty.
Reading list
Grouped by theme. Open a section to browse.
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Daniel Kahneman
A map of the two systems behind human judgment, and the biases that distort decisions when the fast one goes unchecked. Foundational reading for anyone who makes consequential calls.
Sources of Power
Gary Klein
How experienced people decide under time pressure and high stakes, by recognizing patterns rather than weighing options. The case for intuition as earned expertise.
Superforecasting
Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Evidence from a decade-long forecasting tournament that accurate prediction is a learnable discipline: think in probabilities, keep score, update on new information.
How to Decide
Annie Duke
A practical toolkit for better choices, built on separating the quality of a decision from the quality of its outcome.
The Halo Effect
Phil Rosenzweig
A dismantling of the tidy stories business writing tells about why companies succeed. A caution against mistaking outcomes for causes when judging performance.
The Taming of Chance
Ian Hacking
A history of how probability and statistics came to govern modern thought. Context for anyone who reasons about risk and what the numbers actually mean.
Thinking in Time
Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May
A method for using history in a decision without being captured by the wrong analogy, drawn from a Kennedy School course for officials making high-stakes calls.
The Art of Cross-Examination
Francis L. Wellman
A 1903 classic on questioning witnesses to surface what they would rather conceal. A durable manual on evidence, persuasion, and reading people under pressure.
Recommended
A tool I point leaders to when the problem is people, not process.